XRP at a Critical Decision Zone
XRP is trading near $1.37 after correcting from the $1.70 region toward critical support at $1.35.
The market is now positioned inside a narrow decision zone. Buyers have so far defended $1.35, but XRP has not yet established sustained acceptance above $1.38.
Until that happens, the current bounce should be treated as a test of support rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
Why $1.35 Matters
The $1.35 region represents an important structural support zone. On-chain data referenced by analyst Ali Charts indicates that approximately 2.29 billion XRP previously changed hands around this level.
This concentration of historical transactions makes $1.35 an important cost-basis area and a potential zone of concentrated buying interest.
As long as XRP remains above this level, the immediate recovery structure remains intact. A sustained breakdown below $1.35 would materially weaken the setup.
Whale Distribution Adds Pressure
Large-holder activity has contributed to the recent correction.
Data referenced by Ali Charts indicates that whales sold or redistributed approximately 90 million XRP during the recent period, following XRP's strong advance from approximately $1.00 toward $1.70.
This does not necessarily indicate a long-term bearish trend, but continued whale distribution can increase available supply and limit short-term recovery attempts.
Network Activity Drops Sharply
Network participation has also weakened significantly.
Daily active addresses reportedly declined from approximately 388,492 to 38,163 during the correction — a decrease of roughly 90.18%.
When declining network participation occurs alongside whale distribution, organic demand may be less capable of absorbing additional sell-side pressure.
The $1.38 Confirmation Threshold
NORVENTA currently views $1.35–$1.38 as the primary XRP decision range.
Holding $1.35 preserves the recovery setup, but a sustained reclaim above $1.38 would provide stronger evidence that buyers are regaining short-term control.
A confirmed move above $1.38 could open the recovery path toward $1.60. If momentum continues, approximately $1.68 becomes the next extended upside objective.
KEY LEVELS
Critical Support: $1.35 Bullish Confirmation: $1.38 Primary Target: $1.60 Extended Target: $1.68 Lower Support Zone: $1.20–$1.25
Bullish Scenario
The bullish scenario requires XRP to continue defending $1.35 and subsequently establish sustained acceptance above $1.38.
Such a move would suggest that buyers are absorbing available selling pressure and regaining control of the short-term structure.
Under this scenario, $1.60 becomes the primary recovery objective, followed by $1.68 if momentum strengthens.
A recovery in network activity and reduced whale distribution would provide additional confirmation.
Bearish Scenario
The bearish scenario becomes increasingly relevant if XRP loses $1.35 on a sustained daily closing basis.
A confirmed breakdown would indicate that the correction from $1.70 may remain incomplete and would weaken the immediate recovery structure.
Under this scenario, the broader $1.20–$1.25 region becomes the next important downside area to monitor.
NORVENTA Market View
XRP remains at a critical decision point.
The $1.35 support is currently holding, but the market has not yet provided sufficient confirmation to classify the bounce as a sustained reversal.
NORVENTA is monitoring $1.38 as the immediate confirmation threshold.
Hold $1.35 + reclaim $1.38 → recovery toward $1.60 becomes increasingly viable.
Lose $1.35 → the recovery structure weakens and downside risk toward $1.20–$1.25 increases.
Current Bias: Neutral.
Data & Methodology
Market snapshot: 12 September 2026.
On-chain figures referenced in this analysis incorporate publicly available market and on-chain data, including observations published by Dr. Norventa .
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.